Theoretical correct score odds

Theoretical correct score odds

NinthElement 2015/11/09 17:54

From the statistics chart below, we can determine the generic odds for each correct score in a soccer match (source http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/in-126-years-english-football-has-seen-13475-nil-nil-draws )

Home wins
1-0 = 1 in 10.2
2-0 = 1 in 12.3
2-1 = 1 in 11.2
3-0 = 1 in 21.0
3-1 = 1 in 20.0
3-2 = 1 in 35.7
4-0 = 1 in 43.5
4-1 = 1 in 40.0
4-2 = 1 in 71.5
Others = 1 in 99>

Away wins
0-1 = 1 in 15.9
0-2 = 1 in 29.5
1-2 = 1 in 17.9
0-3 = 1 in 71.5
1-3 = 1 in 43.5
2-3 = 1 in 55.6
Others = 1 in 143>

Draws
0-0 = 1 in 13.9
1-1 = 1 in 8.7
2-2 = 1 in 19.3
3-3 = 1 in 91
4-4 = 1 in 500
Others = 1 in 1000>

Exact total goals
0 goals = 1 in 13.9
1 goals = 1 in 6.3
2 goals = 1 in 4.4
3 goals = 1 in 4.9
4 goals = 1 in 6.5
5 goals = 1 in 11.3
6 goals = 1 in 21
7 or more goals = 1 in 28

There are of course other factors that can come into play for individual matches such as the relative skills of the two teams, and also the bias towards goals may be different in various leagues across the world, but these statistics from 126 years of English league matches should be a good indicator over the long term.

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NinthElement 2015/11/09 21:17
The theoretical odds can be used to determine how overdue a certain correct score is for a particular team. For instance, Bayern Munich are 206 away matches without a 2-2 draw. If the generic odds for a 2-2 result are 1 in 19.3, this means they are 10.6 times overdue for such a result in an away match. Of course as Bayern are Bundesliga champions and a very strong team we want to look for a match where they face opposition strong enough to get a decent result like this when playing against them.